Week of September 14th
Higher
Pants’ Macro Model (PMM): Pointing toward Expansion.
I am still being cautious and watching for signals that we are peaking or in a melt-up → top → contraction scenario.
PMM Long Suggestions: Equities, Copper, Cyclicals, Emerging Markets, Crypto
PMM Short Suggestions: USD, Bonds (I am long TLT), Vol
Directional Bias, Equities:
ES: Long | Base: 6592 | R1: 6653, R2: 6691, R3: 6752, R4: 6814, R5: 6852 | S1: 6531, S2: 6493, S3: 6432, S4: 6370 S5: 6332
NQ: Long | Base: 24017 | R1: 24314, R2: 24498, R3: 24795, R4: 25092, R5: 25276 | S1: 23720, S2: 23536, S3: 23239, S4: 22942 S5: 22758
RTY: Long
EFA: Neutral
Directional Bias, Rates & Bonds:
TLT: Long
US10Y: Long
US10Y/US02Y: Long/Widening
Directional Bias, Commodities/Inflation:
GC: Neutral
CL: Neutral
HG: Long
Directional Bias, Currency & Liquidity:
DXY: Neutral/Short
BTC: Long
ETH: Long
Directional Bias, Credit:
HYG/TLT: Long
HY OAS (High Yield Credit): Neutral/Short
My Current Positioning (Futures, Shares, Crypto, Options):
Longs:
Gold | /1OZZ25 + 10 @ 3,613.43
Bitcoin | /MBTU25 + 1 @ 110,190
IONQ 32.38 avg, 14.81% allocation
RKLB 23.29 avg, 12.93% allocation
HYPD 10.64 avg, 11.50% allocation
LMND 33.65 avg, 9.01% allocation
HOOD 42.66 avg, 7.05% allocation
OKLO 68.40 avg, 6.05% allocation
NBIS 54.72 avg, 5.51% allocation
RR 2.00 avg, 4.84% allocation
QS 9.25 avg, 4.84% allocation
LAES 2.66 avg, 4.77% allocation
TLT 87.56 avg, 4.40% allocation
ATAI 3.40 avg, 3.42% allocation
UUUU 10.89 avg, 2.93% allocation
Options:
BULL $12.5 Call 1/16/26
ABCL $5 Call 1/16/26
OSCR $14 Call 1/16/26
PRME $5 Call 1/16/26
MNMD $10 Call 1/15/27
GRAB $7 Call 12/17/27
Charts / Technical Analysis:
Gold/GC:
Bitcoin:
IONQ:
RKLB:
HYPD:
LMND:
HOOD:
OKLO:
NBIS:
RR:
QS:
LAES (10x Opportunity):
TLT:
ATAI:
UUUU:
Additional Charts/Requests:
CACC:
Range-bound for years now, I would be a seller in the top quarter, and a buyer in the bottom quarter, sideline in-between.
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