Portfolio Value: $100,636

Margin: $35,266

Personal Capital: $64,734

Allocation:

Read more

—

“One billion dollars? You call that a position?” legendary fund manager George Soros once asked his trading partner Stanley Druckenmiller.

Soros continued, “It takes courage to be a pig.”

His point was, when your trades are working, you have to go for the jugular. At Soros’ urging, Druckenmiller doubled that position to $2 billion. The trade went dramatically in their favor, and they made far more money.

I tweeted about this and I felt like expanding on it because perhaps this is the value I provide, I see many people talk about how psychology is important, I see almost everyone post technical analysis, but I don’t see anybody talking about the following.

I figure it may be helpful to someone out there if I go more in depth.

Everyone knows how to google a P/E ratio, and everyone knows how to draw a triangle, so why does everyone fucking suck at trading?

Because everyone listens to their brain, to their feelings. This is why you make bad decisions, it’s why you may do drugs, or jerk off, or eat unhealthily. You choose to listen to the dumbass in your brain that wants to receive dopamine, we all struggle with it, with our own issues. Especially me.

I am early in my trading career, I began in 2023, so you may think I just got/get lucky, I am too young, too inexperienced, whatever else. I am not writing from a place of ego, I am in an attempt to be provocative in order to grab your attention.

The earliest thing I knew about trading is that most people fail, most people suck at this game, and most ideas are wrong. Due to this, I knew to succeed I had to do the opposite of “everyone else”. That is why some people care a lot about sentiment, “Everyone is bullish, pain trade is down”.

It is true, most people are wrong, most people are shit, almost every legendary trader you’ve ever heard of has blown up multiple times.

So how have I, a 20 year old college dropout, achieve over 500% gains YTD?

It all started when I decided to read Best Loser Wins, I give that book (which often gets made fun of on FinX) credit for the formulation of my “edge”.

Essentially what the book taught me was what I have explained on X and I am explaining here, which is to ADD TO WINNERS, and CUT LOSERS SHORT.

Or as I call it, keeping the losers dry, and the winners juicy.

The Mechanics of the Press (How to Actually Do It)

Okay, so we established that most people are wrong because they are losing the fight against human nature. They buy, see green, get scared it will reverse, and sell. Or they get greedy and don’t roll stops up.

Your furu has probably told you to “lock in profits”.

NEWSFLASH!

Your furu is a fucking pussy.

On the other hand, people buy, see red, get hopeful, and become “bagholders” or “community members”.

I will admit, what works for me or your furu or you is what is best, don’t blindly follow someone’s ideas, especially mine. I may call you or your furu a pussy but it doesn’t mean you aren’t profitable, I have found my method to be the best for ME.

I do the opposite of the typical approach. I treat my positions like a snowball rolling down a hill. I don’t “lock in profits” or trim my positions. I don’t have price targets or close a trade at 2R or 3R or even 10R.

This isn’t about blindly doubling down. There is a specific way to do this so you don’t blow up your account when the trend inevitably snaps.

1. The “Free Roll” Concept Most people think adding to a position increases risk. If you do it my way, it actually decreases emotional risk while exploding your upside.

Let’s say I risk 1% of my account on a trade.

• Step 1: The trade moves in my favor, then it begins moving against me toward my 1% stop, but creates a higher low.

• Step 2: I move my stop loss on the first position to underneath that higher low, or somewhere comfortable. There isn’t an exact science, I always try to keep my stop in a place where I believe the trade idea is invalidated. No the fucking “algo” isn’t after me or you or whatever other bullshit you’ve heard.

• Step 3: I buy a second lot, I use leverage, I size up.

• Step 4: Repeat, over and over again.

If the market reverses now and hits my stop, I lose nothing (or next to nothing) on the trade.

I have doubled or tripled or quadrupled, etc. my exposure, but my actual risk is the same (or less). I am using the market’s money to finance the leverage.

Here is an image to provide a visual example.

-Source-

2. Fighting the Vertigo This is where the “Dumbass Brain” kicks in again. When a chart is vertical, your brain screams, “It’s too high! It has to pull back!”

NO THE FUCK IT DOESN’T.

The market doesn’t “have” to do anything.

You have to tell your brain to shut up. Remember Newton’s Law? Objects in motion stay in motion. A chart going vertical is not a signal to sell; it is a signal that there is an imbalance of demand.

I buy into the strength. It feels like jumping onto a moving train. It’s scary, it’s hard. It feels reckless. But it is the only way to catch a 10R or 20R (or even more) on a move.

3. The Exit: Here is the catch: If you trade like this, you will never, EVER manage to sell the top.

Because I am always adding as it goes up, my average entry price moves up with me. When the trend finally breaks, I will get stopped out, and I will give back a chunk of open profit.

This destroys most people. They see their PnL go from +$10k to +$6k and they feel like they lost $4k.

I don’t. I see that $4k as the cost of doing business. If I tried to “lock it in” too early, I would have missed the times it went to +$20k or +$50k.

Conclusion: Value is in the Mind, Not the Chart I can’t sell you a course on some “Secret Pattern” or strategy or “Enigma” because there isn’t one. The chart is just a visual representation of mass psychology.

My “edge” is simply having the balls to press the accelerator when everyone else is hitting the brakes, and the discipline to cut the engine the second the car starts stalling.

It’s simple. It’s effective. And it’s why I am up more than most this year.

Even my favorite people, people much more experienced than me, tell me to lock in profits or size down. What works for them doesn’t work for me, and what works for me may not work for you.

Thank You for Reading

I hope you understand I don’t write from a place of ego, I don’t think I am smarter than anyone, I just want to help somebody out.

Above all else I hope to be as authentic as it gets, real, I try to tell the truth.

—

P.S. Obviously this strategy gets chewed up in choppy markets. I’m currently working on coding an indicator to detect “chop regimes” so I know when to sit on my hands. If I manage to get it working, I’ll share the code in a future post.

I won’t tell you who I am, I will tell you my story, and who I am can be decided by you.

When I was born, my parents were in mountains of credit card debt, my parents took to Dave Ramsey of course, and ended up filing for bankruptcy, and began building up out of that hole.

They worked all the time, my mother was a nurse and my father worked in restaurants until he became a conductor and later a dispatcher (trains). I was constantly taken care of by babysitters/nannies (shoutout Katie the goat).

All I fucking ate was peanut butter sandwiches and mac and cheese with hotdogs (still a goated meal btw) which explains now why I fucking hate peanut butter sandwiches.

I found solace in soccer, and because of this, my only friends were the mexican kids across the street because they were ‘outcasts’ like me, I was extremely short, played a sport none of the white kids cared about, at least where I went to school.

I specifically remember thinking “As long as I have this ball, I don’t need any money or anything else” I thought I’d become a professional soccer player, which I really could have and still think I could now (this is how delusionally I believe in myself), I was actually really fucking good for an American. Even got called up to travel to different states playing for the “Olympic Development Program”

Well eventually my mother decided she was sick of leaving her kids to be raised by other people, she was sick of nursing, I began having issues with anxiety and depression, sad all the time, began going to therapy. I just wanted my mom.

She started doing anything and everything to be her own boss, firstly with photography which really got her a good start, she began making enough money to quit working and was a photographer full time.

This got her quite a nice start of a following on Instagram and from there she began selling products, over time she began making decent money.

We eventually moved to a nicer area, I was probably 11 or 12, and I was NOT happy. I wanted to continue playing soccer all day long with my friends, there was a park right across the street and there wasn’t any friends or any way to play as easily where we were moving, although I did join a club team.

I eventually made new friends, played soccer a bit less and got more into video games as thats what my friends were into. They told me about a game called fortnite and you know how that story goes lol.

Given we were making more money, my parents were able to be around a lot, take me to practices and games, buy me anything I needed or wanted, they had freedom, we all had freedom, and before, there weren’t much of a choice of anything. They just had to do what they had to do because ‘wants’ were out of the question.

I slowly overtime realized, it’s not all about me. Sure, I didn’t care about anything other than that damn soccer ball, so I was happy enough, I was fine, but I wasn’t the one paying bills and trying to survive while raising three accident children.

So then I began to see how this all works. Money buys choices, freedom, opportunity for yourself and others, money can help people. My mom actually begun sponsoring these two children in Africa, they send us pictures and tell us what they’re learning at church, still to this day. We’ve watched them grow up and without my mother they’d be much worse off.

I began to realize the truth. In this world, with the rules determined by the people before me, money buys freedom, and being free makes it easier to be happy.

I watched the transition not just in myself but particularly my parents, they were happier, less angry, my dad stopped throwing shit at walls. They had their heads above water.

So I knew both worlds, I saw both worlds, and I continued to see the extent of this truth as my mom paid off houses, purchased more reliable cars, became a millionaire, then a multi millionaire, then eight figures, bought my dad a gun-shop for him to have his own business.

I saw it was possible. You really can do anything you put your mind to. Everyone says this but I don’t think people believe it until they see it first-hand or do it first-hand.

Due to the culture of the ‘nice’ and ‘rich’ school I had moved to, they began making me want to participate in soccer less and less, forcing me to do things by their rules, play their way, I was talented, I was a player whom you don’t fuck with the design of. I enjoyed my club team immensely because the coaches and my teammates knew this, they improved upon my design, they didn’t try to change it.

So then I began playing video games more and more, that was my new love. I was addicted to it, I wanted to be the best just as I had when I focused on soccer. I treated it like a sport, I practiced, I DID video games, I didn’t play them, I was honing a skill, I wanted to make money doing this shit forever.

Then covid hit, and I had such a huge opportunity to play video games all fucking day and night, I was sleeping like 3 hours a day, playing video games all night, going to work with my dad in the morning, spending every dime I made on those videogames and my gaming set-up and such.

I had always been interested in stocks and investing, I liked the Wolf of Wall Street and I thought the people who worked on Wall Street were super fucking cool, in their fresh suits and nice watches, driving their nice cars to work, making and moving shit loads of money like it was nothing.

The GME and WSB thing happened, I got to watch the euphoric cycle occur while I was actually conscious of it. I saw how much money regular people could make, I didn’t have to go work on wall street in an office and study for years at Kelley to do this. I could do it from my home.

So I told my mom about my interest in it and she loaded me up a custodial account with $100 with TD Ameritrade. I was probably 15 or 16 at this point.

The first trade I made I certainly lost money lol, then I had a great idea of something to buy low and sell high later.

I put the rest in russian rubles…

Thank god she only gave me $100.

So eventually that “trade” just got locked up because as you know, there is a fucking war over there. Never going to see that money again.

So then I went back to playing video-games again. (The name Pants was my gamertag, that’s where my name comes from)

Later on, I think Senior year, so now I am 17/18, I had to make the big choice of what I was going to study in college.

For my whole life people asked me “what do you want to be when you grow up” and the answer every single time was “I don’t know”

I don’t fucking know what my dream job is because I don’t dream of having a job, I dream of traveling and seeing things and eating food and interacting with people of different cultures and living life. I didn’t want to spend 50 years in an office surrounded by other people who have no grand ambition, I wanted to be free.

So I decided I would be an exploratory student, allowing me to take a few different classes, my favorite being philosophy which catalyzed my spirituality and helped with my mental health, I am no longer depressed or anxious, and I would never kill myself.

Freshman year of college I opened a robinhood account and began taking my first trades and investing in random tickers, bought nvda at $400 pre split, sold it for $800.

I realized that this was really a thing I liked, it was like printing money, if I made the right decisions I could do whatever I want, report to nobody, and make that money wherever I am in the world.

So I began taking it seriously, starting with forex of course because that’s what those gurus always sell to people like me. Began learning about price action and technical analysis, bought books like Market Wizards and Best Loser Wins.

I spent the entirety of my freshman year, going to class, ignoring everything that was happening, just watching videos and trying to learn as much as I possibly could.

Obviously, I decided not to re-enroll, I liked cooking enough to pay my bills with it, and figured if I don’t want a job, I shouldn’t keep wasting my time and my parents money going to school.

I decided I’d be a trader, do or die, I’ll be a full time trader or I’ll be stuck in kitchens forever, that is a choice I comfortably made, and have to make every single day when I wake up to go into that hellish furnace that is the kitchen.

And so that is what I did, and have been doing, for these last couple years since 2023 when I graduated high-school.

And although I am nowhere near the point of being able to do this full time, I have learned a lot, I think I am doing well, I am proud of myself, I am thankful for the endless help and support and criticism and advice from people I’ve found on X, that has really catalyzed my growth.

I really don’t think I can fail, i’m like a fucking fly or a gnat or a cockroach, I just won’t fucking stop, I can’t give up, it’s not in me, “my heart just ain’t gonna buy it” as Frank Sinatra said.

If I somehow got liquidated, I’d start again, I was born into parents who were beyond liquidated, and they fucking did it. Rags to riches.

I can move back into my mother’s basement any time I need to, I can start from 0 again and again. I will never ever fucking tap out, you must kill me.

It’s one of the few certainties I have, I will not ever fucking give up.

I will PERSIST INDEFINITELY, I will be bruised, smashed, beaten, but for some reason within me, I just can’t fucking let myself be stopped, I can’t quit. I can’t give up. And to me, failure is when you stop persisting, when you give up, when you throw in the towel.

I can’t fail. I won’t. I refuse to.

Here is something I built to analyze the macroeconomic-view currently.

Due to a deceleration in growth, the regime flipped from Expansion to Stagflationary leaning. This doesn’t mean we WILL or HAVE to stagflate or be in a stagflationary regime, that’s just the forward looking most probable scenario.

The other considerations I have are rate cuts in a couple weeks, a 100% probability of rate cuts are being priced in for the next meeting. That isn’t a direct increase of liquidity but as you can figure out, that would promote an increase the amount of debt businesses and individuals are taking on, increase in lending, which increases “liquidity” and that money has to go somewhere (likely risk assets IE: SPY and ARM)

This market is complete bullshit, it’s full ponzi, and it is this way because of mister Donald Trump. Because he is in office, I think he will do ANYTHING to keep the market propped up, but this is an opinion and not based in fact.

Positively, credit spreads are beginning to come back down, possibly due to the rate cuts coming up. This is good for risk assets like ARM.

Another important consideration to make is, China and Japan have lots and lots of foreign dollars in USD denominated assets, it is possible they are beginning to change their feelings about this and they could begin pulling investments from USD denominated assets and start building up their own markets and such.

This would obviously lead to a massive drawdown as US investors wouldn’t be able to prop up the insane amount of money being pulled out of the market.

My positioning:

I am currently highly leveraged long Silver, ES, and RTY. Silver being a bigger position than both of them combined, I am sometimes quickly in and out of positions though, but this is what I have been running throughout these last weeks/months.

I also have ITM long dated XLE calls, this is incase the Stagflationary scenario plays out and I’ll increase my size in that position if so, obviously reducing my ES and RTY longs.

The ARM Trade Idea:

When regarding the technical side of things, something which has been ranging is likely to keep ranging. If you’re a pure technical guy you’re selling in the top half of this range, and buying in the bottom half of the range, it just makes sense.

In ranges, personally, I wait for a breakout of that range before going long, as that confirms a change in behavior.

This is how I would play the trade, IF you have conviction in ARM.

You cannot borrow conviction.

Conclusion:

The data suggests we lean toward stagflation, but I am not convinced yet, and tomorrow the model could flip back to Expansion or Inflationary melt-up.

Rate cuts and Donald Trump are short term bullish for the market.

It’s China and policy error that is what will likely fuck us later on.

The ARM trade makes some sense, but caution is crucial.

As you know from my last post, my macro model has shifted to stagflationary.
Growth has been rolling over for weeks, inflation is sticky, and credit spreads are quietly beginning to widen again.

In this post I am going to explain what is happening, and the trade I will be taking for this shift.

Read more

In this article I am going to explain how it works and what we are seeing, I aim to continue improving my value provision and I will just keep getting better, I assure you. So stick with me and lets get into it.

Here we have the first panels, the main area of the dashboard.

The regime map is based on the one MarketRadar uses and created.

It shows which regimes we have been in over the last 60 days, the path it took, and where we are now.

The growth index shows the trend in Growth, one of the 3 main drivers (Inflation, Growth, Liquidity).

The signal is simply the 34 ema, anyone could create something like this as I have just shown you, the difference is, most won’t even try.

The cone projection is very simple and not meant to be accurate, it’s just meant to give an idea of the trend.

Here we can see the growth index again without it’s “projections” just a plain chart, same with the inflation index and inflation index cone projection. Same ideas there as before.

I’ve also included credit on the dashboard, HYOAS and BBBOAS, as well as the 2s10s curve for added confluence as credit is extremely important to the macro cycle.

Here we have the backtest and performance of this dashboard over the last 10 years.

As you can see, it has GREATLY out-performed the S&P 500, by almost DOUBLE.

The strategy is based on the ratio of assets:cash in each of the four regimes.

For example in a stagflationary regime maybe you’d be 25% long risk assets, with 75% cash to buy dips and protect yourself.

Decided I’d like to chill out by just rambling a bit here, hopefully you find some enjoyment or something of use. May do these more often idk, fun to write and gives me a good reason to review charts and do a daily review of the market.

~

Digestion seemed to be the theme today, sideways “you first!” action. At least in regards to my positioning,

I ended flat today, copper (my heaviest trade right now) ate shit all night and chopped throughout the day.

6800 looks like the wall for ES now, the evil Labubu I tweeted about must be sitting up there. We are holding the current POC well, I of course, think we bid higher and higher and rip faces until bears finally cave in.

NQ looks fine ended flat on the day kinda like everything else. Nobody wants to make the first move. Here is how I seeing tomorrow play out, I lean the bullish view.

RTY/Russell 2000 continues to breakout to ATH’s. We are now in price discovery mode, and I think we will continue moving higher.

An object in motion…

Continuing on, the only way to really find “targets” when we are at ATH’s is with fib extensions. I am looking for 3000-3500 RTY.

GC/Gold, not much to say, I think higher but I won’t rule out a rotation out of gold into silver and such due to the extended run we’ve had. I don’t think it is likely though, I think people (myself included) generally want to hold anything other than USD in this time period.

SI/Silver same vibes as gold imo, an object in motion etc etc.

The thing with silver right now is that, yes it’s been getting attention, yes it’s been melting up, but, I think soon enough Silver will get a ridiculous pop from the FOMO’ers due to the need to own anything other than USD.

Quantum, simple. This is not a chart you short. Maybe if the 13ema there at 106.39 breaks with some force, but I don’t see why anyone other than Martin Shkreli would find this as something to short. Frankly the average person on finX doesn’t understand timing enough to ever be short in any fucking market.

Let me get riled up here,

STUFF DOESN’T GO DOWN JUST BECAUSE IT SHOULD, IT GOES DOWN BECAUSE THERE ARE MORE SELLERS THAN BUYERS. IF THERE IS NO INDICATION OF MORE SELLERS THAN BUYERS, I DON’T KNOW WHY YOU WOULD BE SELLING.

IF THERE IS NO INDICATION OF MORE BUYERS THAN SELLERS, I DON’T KNOW WHY YOU WOULD BE BUYING.

IF THERE IS A BUBBLE, YOU WANT TO BE LONG THE BUBBLIEST BUBBLE SHIT THAT EVER BUBBLED BECAUSE BUBBLE MEAN INFLATE YOUR MONEY. UNDERSTAND?

NO RECESSION!

TAKE ON RISK, AND ABOVE ALL, MANAGE IT WELL.

Phew. Alright.

My Current Positioning (Futures, Shares, Crypto, Options):

Longs:

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Flipped from Peak/Melt-Up to Expansion | Lean: ~65% Expansion ~35% Melt-Up

Long: Equities, Emerging Markets, Metals, Crypto

Short: Bonds, USD

Charts/Technical Analysis:

SPX:

NVDA:

MSFT:

AAPL:

GOOG:

AMZN:

META:

AVGO:

TSLA:

The following content includes:

• Weekly levels for BTC, ETH, ES, NQ, RTY, YM, GC, and SI.

• My positioning and portfolio allocation.

• Chart Requests.

Read more

Macro Model:

Flipped to Peak/Melt-up on Friday, if you’re short you’re probably fucked, in MY view.

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Long Suggestions: ES, NQ, RTY, BTC, ETH, ALTS, METALS

• I am currently long: Copper, Silver, Crude, Russell, HYPD, and SONN, as well as my other handful of stocks I have had (IONQ, LMND, RKLB, etc.)

Short Suggestions: N/A

Directional Bias, Equities:

ES: Long | Base: 6696 | R1: 6756, R2: 6792, R3: 6852, R4: 6912, R5: 6948 | S1: 6636, S2: 6600, S3: 6540, S4: 6480, S5: 6444

NQ: Long | Base: 24726 | R1: 25014, R2: 25193, R3: 25481, R4: 25769, R5: 25947 | S1: 24438, S2: 24260, S3: 23972, S4: 23684, S5: 23505.90

RTY: Long

YM: Long

Directional Bias, Commodities/Inflation:

GC: Long

SI: Long

CL: Long

HG: Long

Directional Bias, Currency & Liquidity:

ALTS: LAWWWWNGGG

BTC: Long

ETH: Long

Lot going on rn with me moving and shit. Thanks for reading.

~

The content published on this Substack is for informational and educational purposes only. I am not a licensed financial advisor, and nothing here should be construed as financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Any opinions, analyses, or strategies discussed are personal views and do not constitute recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any securities or financial instruments.

Trading and investing carry significant risks, including the possible loss of principal. You are solely responsible for your own financial decisions. Always do your own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.

By reading this Substack, you acknowledge and agree that I am not liable for any actions you take or outcomes that result from the use of this information.

This post is both a full guide to Elliott Wave Theory (everything you need to know to use it), and a look at how I personally apply it (where I bend, what I prefer, how I trade waves).

What is Elliott Wave Theory?

At its core, Elliott Wave Theory (EWT) is a framework for understanding and trading trends. It says markets move in repeating cycles of five waves in the direction of the trend (impulse) and three waves against the trend (correction).

It’s built on two ideas:

• Markets are driven by crowd psychology. Every move reflects how investors feel.

• These feelings repeat in cycles. Fear, optimism, euphoria, denial. They show up on the chart in waves.

That’s kinda why I like it, it’s part technical tool, and part emotional map of sorts.

The Basic Structure

Markets move in two phases:

Impulse Waves (1–5)

Five waves in the direction of the main trend:

1. Wave 1: The start. Disbelief. “Suckers Rally”

2. Wave 2: Pullback. Traders think the rally’s fake, going to 0.

3. Wave 3: The biggest, strongest move. Everyone piles in, crazy hype on X, your dentist is talking about it, etc.

4. Wave 4: A short pause/pullback.

5. Wave 5: Final rally, often euphoric.

Corrective Waves (A–B–C)

Three waves against the trend:

• A: First selloff.

• B: Dead-cat bounce, people think it’s fine.

• C: The actual correction, usually sharp.

Together, that’s one complete cycle: 1–5 up, A–B–C down.

The Core Rules

EWT has a lot of guidelines, but three rules you cannot break:

1. Wave 3 cannot be the shortest impulse wave.

2. Wave 2 never retraces past the start of Wave 1.

3. Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1.

If your count breaks these, you’re wrong. No exceptions.

Fibonacci and Elliott Wave

Fibonacci ratios are a key tool in EWT. They help project both retracements (pullbacks) and extensions (future targets).

Retracements

Typical levels where waves pull back:

• 0.382, 0.5, 0.618, and for deeper pullbacks, I like 0.65, 0.705, 0.786, and 0.886 as well.

Extensions

Common wave targets:

• 1.0 (equal length)

• 1.618 (classic extended Wave 3 target)

• 2.618 or 4.236 (less common, but happen in extreme trends).

Types of Corrections

Corrective waves aren’t always clean. They come in a few forms:

• Zigzag (A–B–C, sharp drop).

• Flat (sideways, messy correction).

• Triangle (contracting, indecision).

• Complex corrections (combinations of the above).

I sorta get lost trying to label every little move. Personally, I don’t care about how the correction is, I just focus on charting a clean count, 1-5.

How I Personally Use Elliott Wave

• Timeframes: I use 4H, Daily, 2D, Weekly, and Monthly. Larger time frames allow me to have cleaner counts.

• Weinstein EMA: I use the 150D/30W EMA for stage analysis. When an asset enters Stage 2 (breaking out of accumulation, moving above the 150D/30W EMA with some momentum), that’s when I count waves.

• Fibs: The retracements I primarily use are 0.618, 0.65, 0.705, 0.786, and 0.886. The main extensions I use are 1.0, 1.618, and 2.0.

• Noise: I don’t care about micro counts. I focus on the big 1–5 moves.

• Risk: I don’t sell at Fib targets. I roll stops because I want to catch as much of the move as possible.

  

Example: IONQ

In March, IONQ pulled back into a clear Wave 2. Everyone hated it, people doubted the company. To me, that’s classic psychology for a Wave 2, disbelief.

I bought the whole way up. Since then, it’s pushed past the 1:1 extension of Wave 1 and hit $73 (at the time of writing) from a $17.91 low in the Wave 2. I’m still holding. No targets—just rolling my stop higher.

That’s Elliott Wave working in real time.

Common Mistakes Traders Make

• Forcing counts. If it doesn’t fit the rules, it’s not a wave.

• Making Wave 3 the shortest.

• Letting Wave 4 cross Wave 1.

• Obsessing over corrections. Don’t waste time labeling every squiggle.

Elliott Wave: Art or Science?

Here’s my take:

• The rules are strict. If they’re broken, the count is invalid.

• But the application is art. Reading markets is intuitive. Some traders learn how to exploit unconventional scenarios, bending rules in ways most people miss.

That’s why I see Elliott Wave as both a structured way of technical analysis, while also being a bit intuitive at the same time. It gives you a framework to follow, but you use your own intuition and experience to fill in the gaps.

How to Start Using It

Here’s a step-by-step approach you can actually follow:

1. Find assets in Stage 2 (above the 150D/30W EMA).

2. Identify the first impulse waves.

3. Look for Wave 2 or Wave 4 pullbacks.

4. Use Fibonacci retracements to buy the dip.

5. Use Fib extensions (1.0, 1.618) to project targets.

6. Ride the trend—roll stops, don’t force a count.

7. Profit.

Simple.

Lastly

Elliott Wave Theory is just another form of the many types of technical analysis. It won’t make you right every time. But in my opinion, it’s one of the clearest ways to view markets and investor emotions. At least from a high time-frame point-of-view.

You have the generic rules which give you structure. And I’ll give you some details about my style. It’s a bit flexible, I use Anchored VWAP and other MA’s as well as some other tools for volume analysis. Between the two (rules and my style), you’ll have enough to start testing it for yourself.

Use the rules as a foundation, but make it your own, add some other indicators or use fundamentals to guide you, whatever.

Thanks for reading!

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The content published on this Substack is for informational and educational purposes only. I am not a licensed financial advisor, and nothing here should be construed as financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Any opinions, analyses, or strategies discussed are personal views and do not constitute recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any securities or financial instruments.

Trading and investing carry significant risks, including the possible loss of principal. You are solely responsible for your own financial decisions. Always do your own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.

By reading this Substack, you acknowledge and agree that I am not liable for any actions you take or outcomes that result from the use of this information.

My Biggest Bet So Far

I have been watching copper for 3 weeks now, my model has been signaling to long copper for a while, I opened a sizeable position yesterday and luckily for me, unfortunately for you, it popped today before I was able to make a write-up.

Nonetheless, I think we have room to continue moving higher, and I will provide both my macro and technical ideas behind the trade.

First let’s look back in time:

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1 Year Performance: +210%

Macro Model View:

Mostly unchanged, still leaning toward expansion, although leans toward melt-up/peak have increased. I have trailing stops on 95% of my holdings and I recommend the same, although my trails are very wide, upwards of 25% trail on some.

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Long Suggestions: METALS! NQ, ES, Russell, Bitcoin

Short Suggestions: THE DOLLAR

Weekly Directional Bias, Equities:

ES: Long | Base: 6693 | R1: 6753, R2: 6790, R3: 6850, R4: 6910, R5: 6948 | S1: 6633, S2: 6596, S3: 6536, S4: 6476 S5: 6439

NQ: Long | Base: 24705 | R1: 25000, R2: 25183, R3: 25478, R4: 25774, R5: 25956 | S1: 24410, S2: 24227, S3: 23932, S4: 23636 S5: 23454

RTY: Long

YM: Long

Directional Bias, Commodities/Inflation:

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1 Year Performance: +207%

Macro Model View:

Heavy lean toward expansion surprisingly, according to MY model, but I am watching for peak/melt-up risk, trailing my stop losses.

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Long Suggestions: ES, NQ, …

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Can someone please tell me what looks bearish about this chart? I mean look at this shit we have a previous resistance turned support, close above 8 day moving average after extending outside of the bollinger bands, I don’t know what the point of shorting this is, look at the 4D RSI, once it shows bearish divergence we can worry a bit more.

Charts | Positioning | Macro View :

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1 Year Performance: +174%

Here’s the port:

Lo…

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I made a few changes to the port today, mainly to add to my higher conviction longs and just decreasing my lower conviction ones.

My Current Positioning (Futures, Shares, Crypto, Options):

Longs:

• Gold |…

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Limit order set t…

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Because of this I have developed some biases, which so far has benefited me. Here is what I am changi…

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I am still being cautious and watching for signals that we are peaking or in a melt-up → top → contraction scenario.

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PMM Long Suggestions: Equities, Copper, Cyclicals, Emerging Markets, Crypto

PMM Short Suggestions: USD, Bonds (I am long TLT), Vol

Directional Bias, Equities:

ES: Long | Base: 6592 | R1: 6653, R2: 6691, R3: 6752, R4: 6814, R5: 6852 | S1: 6531, S2: 6493, S3: 6432, S4: 6370 S5: 6332

NQ: Long | Base: 24017 | R1: 24314, R2: 24498, R3: 24795, R4: 25092, R5: 25276 | S1: 23720, S2: 23536, S3: 23239, S4: 22942 S5: 22758

RTY: Long

EFA: Neutral

Directional Bias, Rates & Bonds:

TLT: Long

US10Y: Long

US10Y/US02Y: Long/Widening

Directional Bias, Commodities/Inflation:

GC: Neutral

CL: Neutral

HG: Long

Directional Bias, Currency & Liquidity:

DXY: Neutral/Short

BTC: Long

ETH: Long

Directional Bias, Credit:

HYG/TLT: Long

HY OAS (High Yield Credit): Neutral/Short

My Current Positioning (Futures, Shares, Crypto, Options):

Longs:

• Gold | /1OZZ25 + 10 @ 3,613.43

• Bitcoin | /MBTU25 + 1 @ 110,190

• IONQ 32.38 avg, 14.81% allocation

• RKLB 23.29 avg, 12.93% allocation

• HYPD 10.64 avg, 11.50% allocation

• LMND 33.65 avg, 9.01% allocation

• HOOD 42.66 avg, 7.05% allocation

• OKLO 68.40 avg, 6.05% allocation

• NBIS 54.72 avg, 5.51% allocation

• RR 2.00 avg, 4.84% allocation

• QS 9.25 avg, 4.84% allocation

• LAES 2.66 avg, 4.77% allocation

• TLT 87.56 avg, 4.40% allocation

• ATAI 3.40 avg, 3.42% allocation

• UUUU 10.89 avg, 2.93% allocation

  Options:

• BULL $12.5 Call 1/16/26

• ABCL $5 Call 1/16/26

• OSCR $14 Call 1/16/26

• PRME $5 Call 1/16/26

• MNMD $10 Call 1/15/27

• GRAB $7 Call 12/17/27

Charts / Technical Analysis:

Gold/GC:

Bitcoin:

IONQ:

RKLB:

HYPD:

LMND:

HOOD:

OKLO:

NBIS:

RR:

QS:

LAES (10x Opportunity):

TLT:

ATAI:

UUUU:

Additional Charts/Requests:

• CACC:

  

  • Range-bound for years now, I would be a seller in the top quarter, and a buyer in the bottom quarter, sideline in-between.

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The content published on this Substack is for informational and educational purposes only. I am not a licensed financial advisor, and nothing here should be construed as financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Any opinions, analyses, or strategies discussed are personal views and do not constitute recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any securities or financial instruments.

Trading and investing carry significant risks, including the possible loss of principal. You are solely responsible for your own financial decisions. Always do your own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.

By reading this Substack, you acknowledge and agree that I am not liable for any actions you take or outcomes that result from the use of this information.

Welcome to my Substack, the idea here is simple. Consistent, transparent, and informative weekly posts on financial instruments, with two goals in mind:

1. As you can see above, the BEST way to retain information, is by teaching others. That is how you are checked, corrected, and consider viewpoints which you would have never considered. I am on a constant mission to improve and be better, this is my way to learn while potentially helping someone along the way.

2. Also in reference to my previous point, I want others to learn to fish. I have been very fortunate to have an interest in markets from a young age, and because of that, I have always had a lot of time on my hands to dedicate toward learning. I am hoping that with this Substack I can speed up someone’s journey, at least a little bit.

On this Substack, you will find weekly market outlook posts showing my model’s view of the macro environment, my current positioning, directional bias for key assets (ES, NQ, GOLD, BTC, etc.). I’ll show trade set-ups which I have noticed, that I may or may not be taking part in, and any chart requests I receive.

Between these weekly posts, there may be random sporadic intra-week or even intra-day updates. Whenever possible, I’ll update the Substack consistently with every positioning change.

As of this post (09/12/25), I am +135% YTD. This is not indicative of future performance.

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The content published on this Substack is for informational and educational purposes only. I am not a licensed financial advisor, and nothing here should be construed as financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Any opinions, analyses, or strategies discussed are personal views and do not constitute recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any securities or financial instruments.

Trading and investing carry significant risks, including the possible loss of principal. You are solely responsible for your own financial decisions. Always do your own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.

By reading this Substack, you acknowledge and agree that I am not liable for any actions you take or outcomes that result from the use of this information.